James Fowler

James H. Fowler is an Associate Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of California, San Diego. His current interests include social networks, behavioral economics, evolutionary game theory, political participation, the evolution of cooperation, and the genetic basis of political behavior. His CV is here.

In addition to his scientific research, James is currently working on a book for a general audience about social networks in everyday life (Connected! -- with Nicholas Christakis) that will be published by Little Brown (and more than a dozen other publishers worldwide), probably in early 2010.

James is also an official "Curry Monster" -- see his picture in the P'hall of fame.

Here are some stories from the popular and trade press about his work:
Here are two recent interviews that were a lot of fun:
email: jhfowler@ucsd.edu

Political Science Department
University of California, San Diego
Social Science Building 383
9500 Gilman Drive #0521
La Jolla, CA 92093-0521

phone: (858) 534-6807
fax: (858) 534-7130

MOST RECENT WORKING PAPER ON GENES AND POLITICS

Two Genes Predict Voter Turnout

Fowler, Baker, and Dawes (2008) recently showed in two independent studies of twins that voter turnout has very high heritability. Here we investigate two specific genes that may contribute to this heritability via their impact on neurochemical processes that influence social behavior. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we show that a polymorphism of the MAOA gene significantly increases the likelihood of voting. We also find evidence of a gene-environment interaction between religious attendance and a polymorphism of the 5HTT gene that significantly increases voter turnout. These are the first results to ever link specific genes to political behavior and they suggest that political scientists should take seriously the claim that at least some variation in political behavior is due to innate predispositions.

PUBLICATIONS
  1. Biology, Politics, and the Emerging Science of Human Nature Biologists have recently learned a tremendous amount about human brain function and its genetic basis. At the same time political scientists have developed modern survey methods and game theoretic models to study political attitudes and behaviors. Here we argue that biologists and political scientists must work together to advance a new science of human nature. In particular, the study of cooperation by biologists and of participation by political scientists could benefit from cross-fertilization. It is also becoming increasingly clear that biological and genetic variation play an important role in explaining political behavior. Finally, recent work in neuroscience suggests that the human brain is adapted to solve social problems, and that politics is a form of 'playground cognition'. If the need for sophisticated social cognition drove the evolution of the human brain, then a new science of human nature will require comprehending human biology in a sociopolitical context.
    James H. Fowler, Darren Schreiber
    Science (forthcoming)

  2. Estimating Peer Effects on Health in Social Networks We recently showed that obesity can spread socially from person to person in adults (Christakis and Fowler 2007). A natural question to ask is whether or not these results generalize to a population of adolescents. Three separate teams of researchers have analyzed the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and shown evidence of person-to-peron spread of obesity, but they use different methods and disagree on the interpretation of their results. Here, we conduct our own analysis of the Add Health data, provide additional evidence from the Framingham Heart Study on the social spread of obesity, and use Monte Carlo simulations to test the econometric methods we use to model peer effects. The results show that the existence of peer effects in body mass is robust to several specifications in both adults and in adolescents.
    James H. Fowler, Nicholas A. Christakis
    Journal of Health Economics (forthcoming)

  3. Two Genes Predict Voter Turnout Fowler, Baker, and Dawes (2008) recently showed in two independent studies of twins that voter turnout has very high heritability. Here we investigate two specific genes that may contribute to this heritability via their impact on neurochemical processes that influence social behavior. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we show that a polymorphism of the MAOA gene significantly increases the likelihood of voting. We also find evidence of a gene-environment interaction between religious attendance and a polymorphism of the 5HTT gene that significantly increases voter turnout. These are the first results to ever link specific genes to political behavior and they suggest that political scientists should take seriously the claim that at least some variation in political behavior is due to innate predispositions.
    James H. Fowler, Christopher T. Dawes
    Journal of Politics 70 (3): TBA (July 2008)
      (Featured on CNN)
      (Front page coverage in the San Diego Union Tribune)
      (Featured in New Scientist)
      (See the New York Times editorial)
      (Presentation Slides)

  4. The Colbert Bump in Campaign Donations: More Truthful Than Truthy Stephen Colbert, the host of Comedy Central's The Colbert Report, claims that politicians who appear on his show will become more popular and are more likely to win elections. Although online discussions cite anecdotal evidence in support of his claim, it has never been scrutinized scientifically. In this article I use "facts" (sorry, Stephen) provided by the Federal Election Commission to create a matched control group of candidates who have never appeared on The Colbert Report. I then compare the personal campaign donations they receive to those received by candidates who have appeared on the program's segment "Better Know a District." The results show that Democratic candidates who appear on the Report receive a statistically significant "Colbert bump" in campaign donations, raising 44% more money in a 30-day period after appearing on the show. However, there is no evidence of a similar boost for Republicans. These results constitute the first scientific evidence of Stephen Colbert's influence on political campaigns.
    James H. Fowler
    PS: Political Science & Politics, 41 (3): 533-539 (July 2008)
      (Featured on The Colbert Report, Episode 4028, 3/3/08)
      (See the video at Comedy Central)
      (See my op-ed on Colbert in the Los Angeles Times)
      (Featured in US News and World Report)
      (Featured as NPR's Story of the Day)

  5. The Collective Dynamics of Smoking in a Large Social Network Background
    The prevalence of smoking has decreased substantially in the United States over the past 30 years. We examined the extent of the person-to-person spread of smoking behavior and the extent to which groups of widely connected people quit together.
    Methods
    We studied a densely interconnected social network of 12,067 people assessed repeatedly from 1971 to 2003 as part of the Framingham Heart Study. We used network analytic methods and longitudinal statistical models.
    Results
    Discernible clusters of smokers and nonsmokers were present in the network, and the clusters extended to three degrees of separation. Despite the decrease in smoking in the overall population, the size of the clusters of smokers remained the same across time, suggesting that whole groups of people were quitting in concert. Smokers were also progressively found in the periphery of the social network. Smoking cessation by a spouse decreased a person's chances of smoking by 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 59 to 73). Smoking cessation by a sibling decreased the chances by 25% (95% CI, 14 to 35). Smoking cessation by a friend decreased the chances by 36% (95% CI, 12 to 55 ). Among persons working in small firms, smoking cessation by a coworker decreased the chances by 34% (95% CI, 5 to 56). Friends with more education influenced one another more than those with less education. These effects were not seen among neighbors in the immediate geographic area.
    Conclusions
    Network phenomena appear to be relevant to smoking cessation. Smoking behavior spreads through close and distant social ties, groups of interconnected people stop smoking in concert, and smokers are increasingly marginalized socially. These findings have implications for clinical and public health interventions to reduce and prevent smoking.

    The Colbert Bump in Campaign Donations: More Truthful Than Truthy

    Stephen Colbert, the host of Comedy Central's The Colbert Report, claims that politicians who appear on his show will become more popular and are more likely to win elections. Although online discussions cite anecdotal evidence in support of his claim, it has never been scrutinized scientifically. In this article I use "facts" (sorry, Stephen) provided by the Federal Election Commission to create a matched control group of candidates who have never appeared on The Colbert Report. I then compare the personal campaign donations they receive to those received by candidates who have appeared on the program's segment "Better Know a District." The results show that Democratic candidates who appear on the Report receive a statistically significant "Colbert bump" in campaign donations, raising 44% more money in a 30-day period after appearing on the show. However, there is no evidence of a similar boost for Republicans. These results constitute the first scientific evidence of Stephen Colbert's influence on political campaigns.

    Nicholas A. Christakis, James H. Fowler
    New England Journal of Medicine 358 (21): 2249-58 (22 May 2008)
      (Supplementary Information)
      (See a movie of the network at NEJM)
      (Here's the original movie)
      (UCSD Press Release)
      (Editorial by Steven Schroeder)
      (Featured in the New York Times)
      (Featured in the Washington Post)
      (One of the three lead stories on NPR's Morning Edition)
      (Letter from American Lung Association to New York Times)

  6. Genetic Variation in Political Participation The decision to vote has puzzled scholars for decades. Theoretical models predict little or no variation in participation in large population elections and empirical models have typically explained only a relatively small portion of individual-level variance in turnout behavior. However, these models have not considered the hypothesis that part of the variation in voting behavior can be attributed to genetic effects. Matching public voter turnout records in Los Angeles to a twin registry, we study the heritability of political behavior in monozygotic and dizygotic twins. The results show that genes account for a significant proportion of the variation in voter turnout. We also replicate these results with data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and show that they extend to a broad class of acts of political participation. These are the first findings to suggest that humans exhibit genetic variation in their tendency to participate in political activities.
    James H. Fowler, Laura A. Baker, Christopher T. Dawes
    American Political Science Review 102 (2): 233-248 (May 2008)
      (Featured in Scientific American)
      (Front page coverage in the San Diego Union Tribune)

  7. On the Evolutionary Origin of Prospect Theory Preferences Prospect theory scholars have identified important human decision-making biases, but they have been conspicuously silent on the question of the origin of these biases. Here we create a model that shows preferences consistent with prospect theory may have an origin in evolutionary psychology. Specifically, we derive a model from risk-sensitive optimal foraging theory to generate an explanation for the origin and function of context-dependent risk aversion and risk seeking behavior. Although this model suggests that human cognitive architecture evolved to solve particular adaptive problems related to finding sufficient food resources to survive, we argue that this same architecture persists and is utilized in other survival-related decisions that are critical to understanding political outcomes. In particular, we identify important departures from standard results when we incorporate prospect theory into theories of spatial voting and legislator behavior, international bargaining and conflict, and economic development and reform.
    Rose McDermott, James H. Fowler, Oleg Smirnov
    Journal of Politics 70 (2): 335-350 (April 2008)

  8. Heritability of Cooperative Behavior in the Trust Game Although laboratory experiments document cooperative behavior in humans, little is known about the extent to which individual differences in cooperativeness result from genetic and environmental variation. In this article we report the results of two independently conceived and executed studies of monozygotic and dizygotic twins, one in Sweden, and one in the United States. The results from these studies suggest that humans are endowed with genetic variation that influences the decision to invest--and to reciprocate investment--in the classic trust game. Based on these findings, we urge social scientists to take seriously the idea that differences in peer and parental socialization are not the only forces that influence variation in cooperative behavior.
    Heritability of Cooperative Behavior in the Trust Game

    Although laboratory experiments document cooperative behavior in humans, little is known about the extent to which individual differences in cooperativeness result from genetic and environmental variation. In this article we report the results of two independently conceived and executed studies of monozygotic and dizygotic twins, one in Sweden, and one in the United States. The results from these studies suggest that humans are endowed with genetic variation that influences the decision to invest--and to reciprocate investment--in the classic trust game. Based on these findings, we urge social scientists to take seriously the idea that differences in peer and parental socialization are not the only forces that influence variation in cooperative behavior.

    David Cesarini, Christopher T. Dawes, James H. Fowler, Magnus Johannesson,
    Paul Lichtenstein, Björn Wallace
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (10): 3721-3726 (11 March 2008)
      (Supporting Information)

  9. Community Structure in Congressional Cosponsorship Networks We study the United States Congress by constructing networks between Members of Congress based on the legislation that they cosponsor. Using the concept of modularity, we identify the community structure of Congressmen, as connected via sponsorship/cosponsorship of the same legislation, to investigate the collaborative communities of legislators in both chambers of Congress. This analysis yields an explicit and conceptually clear measure of political polarization, demonstrating a sharp increase in partisan polarization which preceded and then culminated in the 104th Congress (1995-1996), when Republicans took control of both chambers. Although polarization has since waned in the U.S. Senate, it remains at historically high levels in the House of Representatives.
    Yan Zhang, A.J. Friend, Amanda L. Traud, Mason A. Porter, James H. Fowler, Peter J. Mucha
    Physica A 387 (7): 1705-1712 (March 2008)

  10. A Tournament of Party Decision Rules In the spirit of Axelrod's famous series of tournaments for strategies in the repeat-play prisoner'ss dilemma, we conducted a "tournament of party decision rules" in a dynamic agent-based spatial model of party competition. A call was issued for researchers to submit rules for selecting party positions in a two-dimensional policy space. Each submitted rule was pitted against all others in a suite of very long-running simulations in which all parties falling below a declared support threshold for two consecutive elections "died" and one new party was "born" each election at a random spatial location, using a rule randomly drawn from the set submitted. The policy-selection rule most successful at winning votes over the very long run was declared the "winner". The most successful rule was identified unambiguously and combined a number of striking features. It satisficed rather than maximized in the short run; it was "parasitic" on choices made by other successful rules; and it was hard-wired not to attack other agents using the same rule, which it identified using a "secret handshake". We followed up the tournament with a second suite of simulations in a more evolutionary setting in which the selection probability of a rule was a function of its "fitness", measured in terms of the previous success of agents using the same rule. In this setting, the rule that won the original tournament pulled even further ahead of the competition. Treated as a discovery tool, tournament results raise a series of intriguing issues for those involved in the modeling of party competition.
    James H. Fowler, Michael Laver
    Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (1): 68-92 (February 2008)
      (Online Appendix)
      (Click here for more information about the $1000 Tournament of Party Strategies)

  11. The Authority of Supreme Court Precedent We construct the complete network of 30,288 majority opinions written by the U.S. Supreme Court and the cases they cite from 1754 to 2002 in the United States Reports. Data from this network demonstrates quantitatively the evolution of the norm of stare decisis in the 19th Century and a significant deviation from this norm by the activist Warren court. We further describe a method for creating authority scores using the network data to identify the most important Court precedents. This method yields rankings that conform closely to evaluations by legal experts, and even predicts which cases they will identify as important in the future. An analysis of these scores over time allows us to test several hypotheses about the rise and fall of precedent. We show that reversed cases tend to be much more important than other decisions, and the cases that overrule them quickly become and remain even more important as the reversed decisions decline. We also show that the Court is careful to ground overruling decisions in past precedent, and the care it exercises is increasing in the importance of the decision that is overruled. Finally, authority scores corroborate qualitative assessments of which issues and cases the Court prioritizes and how these change over time.
    James H. Fowler, Sangick Jeon
    Social Networks 30 (1): 16-30 (January 2008)
      (Featured in The Economist)
      Download Supreme Court data developed for this article here.

    The Spread of Obesity in a Large Social Network Over 32 Years

    Background
    The prevalence of obesity has increased substantially over the past 30 years. We performed a quantitative analysis of the nature and extent of the person-to-person spread of obesity as a possible factor contributing to the obesity epidemic.
    Methods
    We evaluated a densely interconnected social network of 12,067 people assessed repeatedly from 1971 to 2003 as part of the Framingham Heart Study. The body-mass index was available for all subjects. We used longitudinal statistical models to examine whether weight gain in one person was associated with weight gain in his or her friends, siblings, spouse, and neighbors.
    Results
    Discernible clusters of obese persons were present in the network at all time points, and the clusters extended to three degrees of separation. These clusters did not appear to be solely attributable to the selective formation of social ties among obese persons. A person's chances of becoming obese increased by 57% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6 to 123) if he or she had a friend who became obese in a given interval. Among pairs of adult siblings, if one sibling became obese, the chance that the other would become obese increased by 40% (95% CI, 21 to 60). If one spouse became obese, the likelihood that the other spouse would become obese increased by 37% (95% CI, 7 to 73). These effects were not seen among neighbors in the immediate geographic location. Persons of the same sex had relatively greater influence on each other as compared with those of the opposite sex. The spread of smoking cessation did not account for the spread of obesity in the network.
    Conclusions
    Network phenomena appear to be relevant to the biologic and behavioral trait of obesity, and obesity appears to spread through social ties. These findings have implications for clinical and public health interventions.

  12. Social Networks in Political Science: Hiring and Placement of PhDs, 1960-2002 Drawing on recent methodological advances, we examine the social network of political science department placements. This network permits us to estimate simultaneously 1) how well departments place their own students and 2) how effective they are in hiring students from other institutions. Using data collected by Masuoka, Grofman and Feld (2006a, b) on U.S. Ph.D. granting institutions, we provide visualizations of the connectivity among 132 departments as a social network graph in which core and periphery departments can be identified. We also show how this network has changed over time. The new social network measures conform closely to qualitative expert rankings and show that a department's placement record contributes more to its prestige than a department's ability to hire and retain faculty from core institutions.
    James H. Fowler, Bernard N. Grofman, Natalie Masuoka
    PS: Political Science & Politics 40 (4): 729-739 (October 2007)

  13. Does Self-Citation Pay? Self-citations - those where authors cite their own work - account for a significant portion of all citations. These self-references may result from the cumulative nature of individual research, the need for personal gratification, or the value of self-citation as a rhetorical and tactical tool in the struggle for visibility and scientific authority. In this article we examine the incentives that underlie self-citation by studying how authors' references to their own works affect the citations they receive from others. We report the results of a macro study of more than half a million citations to articles by Norwegian scientists that appeared in the Science Citation Index. We show that the more one cites oneself the more one is cited by other scholars. Controlling for numerous sources of variation in cumulative citations from others, our models suggest that each additional self-citation increases the number of citations from others by about one after one year, and by about three after five years. Moreover, there is no significant penalty for the most frequent self-citers the effect of self-citation remains positive even for very high rates of self-citation. These results carry important policy implications for the use of citations to evaluate performance and distribute resources in science and they represent new information on the role and impact of self-citations in scientific communication.
    James H. Fowler, Dag W. Aksnes
    Scientometrics 72 (3): 427-437 (September 2007)
      (Mentioned in Nature News)

  14. Beyond the Self: Social Identity, Altruism, and Political Participation Scholars have recently extended the traditional calculus of participation model by adding a term for benefits to others. We advance this work by distinguishing theoretically a concern for others in general (altruism) from a concern for others in certain groups (social identification). We posit that both concerns generate increased benefits from participation. To test these theories, we use allocations in dictator games towards an unidentified anonymous recipient and two recipients identified only as a registered Democrat or a registered Republican. These allocations permit a distinction between altruism and social identification. The results show that both altruism and social identification significantly increase political participation. The results also demonstrate the usefulness of incorporating benefits that stem from sources beyond material self-interest into rational choice models of participation.
    James H. Fowler, Cindy D. Kam
    Journal of Politics 69 (3): 813-827 (August 2007)
      (Web appendix)

  15. The Spread of Obesity in a Large Social Network Over 32 Years Background
    The prevalence of obesity has increased substantially over the past 30 years. We performed a quantitative analysis of the nature and extent of the person-to-person spread of obesity as a possible factor contributing to the obesity epidemic.
    Methods
    We evaluated a densely interconnected social network of 12,067 people assessed repeatedly from 1971 to 2003 as part of the Framingham Heart Study. The body-mass index was available for all subjects. We used longitudinal statistical models to examine whether weight gain in one person was associated with weight gain in his or her friends, siblings, spouse, and neighbors.
    Results
    Discernible clusters of obese persons were present in the network at all time points, and the clusters extended to three degrees of separation. These clusters did not appear to be solely attributable to the selective formation of social ties among obese persons. A person's chances of becoming obese increased by 57% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6 to 123) if he or she had a friend who became obese in a given interval. Among pairs of adult siblings, if one sibling became obese, the chance that the other would become obese increased by 40% (95% CI, 21 to 60). If one spouse became obese, the likelihood that the other spouse would become obese increased by 37% (95% CI, 7 to 73). These effects were not seen among neighbors in the immediate geographic location. Persons of the same sex had relatively greater influence on each other as compared with those of the opposite sex. The spread of smoking cessation did not account for the spread of obesity in the network.
    Conclusions
    Network phenomena appear to be relevant to the biologic and behavioral trait of obesity, and obesity appears to spread through social ties. These findings have implications for clinical and public health interventions.

    Nicholas A. Christakis, James H. Fowler
    New England Journal of Medicine 357 (4): 370-379 (26 July 2007)
      (Supplementary Information)
      (See a movie of the network at NEJM)
      (Here's the original movie)
      (UCSD Press Release)
      (Editorial by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi)
      (Correspondence about the article in NEJM, 1 Nov 2007 )
      (Front-page, above-the-fold New York Times article -- reached No.2 on most emailed list)
      (Also in the New York Times Week in Review)
      (Watch a 30 minute TV program about the study on the series Health Matters)

    Egalitarian Motives in Humans

    Participants in laboratory games are often willing to alter others' incomes at a cost to themselves and this behaviour has the effect of promoting cooperation. What motivates this action is unclear: punishment and reward aimed at promoting cooperation cannot be distinguished from attempts to produce equality. To understand costly taking and costly giving, we create an experimental game that isolates egalitarian motives. The results show that subjects reduce and augment others' incomes, at a personal cost, even when there is no cooperative behaviour to be reinforced. Furthermore, the size and frequency of income alterations are strongly influenced by inequality. Emotions towards top earners become increasingly negative as inequality increases, and those who express these emotions spend more to reduce above-average earners' incomes and to increase below-average earners' incomes. The results suggest that egalitarian motives affect income altering behaviours, and may thus be an important factor underlying the evolution of strong reciprocity and, hence, cooperation in humans

  16. Network Analysis and the Law: Measuring the Legal Importance of Supreme Court Precedents We construct the complete network of 26,681 majority opinions written by the U.S. Supreme Court and the cases that cite them from 1791 to 2005. We describe a method for using the patterns in citations within and across cases to create importance scores that identify the most legally relevant precedents in the network of Supreme Court law at any given point in time. Our measures are superior to existing network-based alternatives and, for example, offer information regarding case importance not evident in simple citation counts. We also demonstrate the validity of our measures by showing that they are strongly correlated with the future citation behavior of state courts, the U.S. Courts of Appeals, and the U.S. Supreme Court. In so doing, we show that network analysis is a viable way of measuring how central a case is to law at the Court and suggest that it can be used to measure other legal concepts.
    James H. Fowler, Timothy R. Johnson, James F. Spriggs II, Sangick Jeon, Paul J. Wahlbeck
    Political Analysis, 15 (3): 324-346 (July 2007)

  17. Egalitarian Motives in Humans Participants in laboratory games are often willing to alter others' incomes at a cost to themselves and this behaviour has the effect of promoting cooperation. What motivates this action is unclear: punishment and reward aimed at promoting cooperation cannot be distinguished from attempts to produce equality. To understand costly taking and costly giving, we create an experimental game that isolates egalitarian motives. The results show that subjects reduce and augment others' incomes, at a personal cost, even when there is no cooperative behaviour to be reinforced. Furthermore, the size and frequency of income alterations are strongly influenced by inequality. Emotions towards top earners become increasingly negative as inequality increases, and those who express these emotions spend more to reduce above-average earners' incomes and to increase below-average earners' incomes. The results suggest that egalitarian motives affect income altering behaviours, and may thus be an important factor underlying the evolution of strong reciprocity and, hence, cooperation in humans
    Christopher T. Dawes, James H. Fowler, Tim Johnson, Richard McElreath, Oleg Smirnov
    Nature 446: 794-796, doi:10.1038/nature05651 (12 April 2007)
      (Supplementary Information)
      (UCSD Press Release)
      (Reuters article picked up by CNN and New York Times)

  18. Policy-Motivated Parties in Dynamic Political Competition We analyze a model of a dynamic political competition between two policy-motivated parties under uncertainty. The model suggests that electoral mandates matter: increasing the margin of victory in the previous election causes both parties to shift towards policies preferred by the winner, and the loser typically shifts more than the winner. The model also provides potential answers to a number of empirical puzzles in the field of electoral politics. In particular, we provide possible explanations for why close elections may lead to extreme platforms by both parties,why increased extremism in the platform of one party may lead to greater moderation in the platform of the other party,and why increasing polarization of the electorate causes winning candidates to become more sensitive to mandates. We also show that, contrary to previous findings, increasing uncertainty sometimes decreases platform divergence. Finally, we pay special attention to the proper methodology for doing numerical comparative statics analysis in computational models.
    Oleg Smirnov, James H. Fowler
    Journal of Theoretical Politics 19 (1): 9-31 (January 2007)

  19. Mandates, Parties, and Voters: How Elections Shape the Future Most research on two-party elections has considered the outcome as a single, dichotomous event: either one or the other party wins. In this book, the authors investigate not just who wins, but by how much, and they marshal compelling evidence that mandates--in the form of margin of victory--matter. Using theoretical models, computer simulation, carefully designed experiments, and empirical data, the authors show that after an election the policy positions of both parties move in the direction preferred by the winning party--and they move even more if the victory is large. (book)
    James H. Fowler, Oleg Smirnov
    Temple University Press (2007)
      (Includes the chapters A Dynamic Calculus of Voting and
       Party Responsiveness and Mandate Balancing.)
      (see the Review in Perspectives by André Blais)

    Mandates, Parties, and Voters: How Elections Shape the Future

    Most research on two-party elections has considered the outcome as a single, dichotomous event: either one or the other party wins. In this book, the authors investigate not just who wins, but by how much, and they marshal compelling evidence that mandates--in the form of margin of victory--matter. Using theoretical models, computer simulation, carefully designed experiments, and empirical data, the authors show that after an election the policy positions of both parties move in the direction preferred by the winning party--and they move even more if the victory is large.

  20. The Southern California Twin Register at the University of Southern California: II The Southern California Twin Register was initiated in 1984 at the University of Southern California, and continues to grow. This article provides an update of the register since it was described in the 2002 special issue of this journal. The register has expanded considerably in the past 4 years, primarily as a result of recent access to Los Angeles County birth records and voter registration databases. Currently, this register contains nearly 5000 twin pairs, the majority of whom are school age. The potential for further expansion in adult twins using voter registration records is also described. Using the Los Angeles County voter registration database, we can identify a large group of individuals with a high probability of having a twin who also resides in Los Angeles County. In addition to describing the expansion of register, this article provides an overview of an ongoing investigation of 605 twin pairs who are participating in a longitudinal study of behavioral problems during childhood and adolescence. Characteristics of the twins and their families are presented, indicating baseline rates of conduct problems, depression and anxiety disorders, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder diagnoses which are comparable to nontwins in this age range.
    Laura A. Baker, Mafalda Barton, Adrian Raine, James H. Fowler
    Twin Research and Human Genetics 9 (6): 1-8 (December 2006)

  21. Connecting the Congress: A Study of Cosponsorship Networks Using large-scale network analysis I map the cosponsorship networks of all 280,000 pieces of legislation proposed in the U.S. House and Senate from 1973 to 2004. In these networks, a directional link can be drawn from each cosponsor of a piece of legislation to its sponsor. I use a number of statistics to describe these networks such as the quantity of legislation sponsored and cosponsored by each legislator, the number of legislators cosponsoring each piece of legislation, the total number of legislators who have cosponsored bills written by a given legislator, and network measures of closeness, betweenness, and eigenvector centrality. I then introduce a new measure I call "connectedness" which uses information about the frequency of cosponsorship and the number of cosponsors on each bill to make inferences about the social distance between legislators. Connectedness predicts which members will pass more amendments on the floor, a measure that is commonly used as a proxy for legislative influence. It also predicts roll call vote choice even after controlling for ideology and partisanship.
    James H. Fowler
    Political Analysis 14 (4): 456-487 (Fall 2006)
      (Mentioned in the Washington Post and Washington Times)
      Download Cosponsorship network data developed for this article here.

  22. Legislative Cosponsorship Networks in the U.S. House and Senate In the US House and Senate, each piece of legislation is sponsored by a unique legislator. In addition, legislators can publicly express support for a piece of legislation by cosponsoring it. The network of sponsors and cosponsors provides information about the underlying social networks among legislators. I use a number of statistics to describe the cosponsorship network in order to show that it behaves much differently than other large social networks that have been recently studied. In particular, the cosponsorship network is much denser than other networks and aggregate features of the network appear to be influenced by institutional arrangements and strategic incentives. I also demonstrate that a weighted closeness centrality measure that I call "connectedness" can be used to identify influential legislators.
    James H. Fowler
    Social Networks 28 (4): 454-465 (October 2006)
      (Mentioned in the Washington Post and Washington Times)
      Download Cosponsorship network data developed for this article here.

  23. Altruism and Turnout Scholars have recently reworked the traditional calculus of voting model by adding a term for benefits to others. Although the probability that a single vote affects the outcome of an election is quite small, the number of people who enjoy the benefit when the preferred alternative wins is large. As a result, people who care about benefits to others and who think one of the alternatives makes others better offare more likely to vote.I test the altruism theory ofvoting in the laboratory by using allocations in a dictator game to reveal the degree to which each subject is concerned about the well-being of others. The main findings suggest that variation in concern for the well-being of others in conjunction with strength of party identification is a significant factor in individual turnout decisions in real world elections. Partisan altruists are much more likely to vote than their nonpartisan or egoist peers.
    James H. Fowler
    Journal of Politics 68 (3): 674-683 (August 2006)
      (Web appendix)
      (Mentioned in the Chronicle of Higher Education)

    Second Order Free-Riding Problem Solved?

    Panchanathan and Boyd describe a model of indirect reciprocity in which mutual aid among cooperators can promote large-scale human cooperation without succumbing to a second-order free-riding problem (whereby individuals receive but do not give aid). However, the model does not include second-order free riders as one of the possible behavioural types. Here I present a simplified version of their model to demonstrate how cooperation unravels if second-round defectors enter the population, and this shows that the free-riding problem remains unsolved.

  24. Patience as a Political Virtue: Delayed Gratification and Turnout A number of scholars have demonstrated that voter turnout is influenced by the costs of processing information and going to the polls, and the policy benefits associated with the outcome of the election. However, no one has yet noted that the costs of voting are paid on or before Election Day, while policy benefits may not materialize until several days, months, or even years later. Since the costs of voting must be borne before the benefits are realized, people who are more patient should be more willing to vote. We use a "choice game" from experimental economics to estimate individual discount factors which are used to measure patience. We then show that patience significantly increases voter turnout.
    James H. Fowler, Cindy D. Kam
    Political Behavior 28 (2): 113-128 (June 2006)

  25. Habitual Voting and Behavioral Turnout Bendor, Diermeier, and Ting (2003) develop a behavioral alternative to rational choice models of turnout. However, the assumption they make about the way individuals adjust their probability of voting biases their model towards their main result of significant turnout in large populations. Moreover, the assumption causes individuals to engage in casual voting (sometimes people vote and sometimes they abstain). This result is at odds with a substantial literature that indicates most people engage in habitual voting (they either always vote or always abstain). I develop an alternative model to show how feedback in the probability adjustment mechanism affects the behavioral model. The version of this model without feedback yields both high turnout and habitual voting.
    James H. Fowler
    Journal of Politics 68 (2): 335-344 (May 2006)
      (Web appendix)

  26. Elections and Markets: The Effect of Partisan Orientation, Policy Risk,
    and Mandates on the Economy
    Rational partisan theory's exclusive focus on electoral uncertainty ignores the importance of policy uncertainty for the economy. I develop a theory of policy risk to account for this uncertainty. Using an innovative measure of electoral probabilities based on Iowa Electronic Markets futures data for the United States from 1988 to 2000, I test both theories. As predicted by rational partisan theory, positive changes in the probability that the Left wins the Presidency or the Congress lead to increases in nominal interest rates, implying that expectations of inflation have increased. As predicted by the policy risk theory, positive changes in the electoral probability of incumbent governments and divided governments lead to significant declines in interest rates, implying that expectations of inflation risk have decreased. And as an extension to both theories, I find that electoral margins matter for the economy--partisan and policy risk effects depend not only on which party controls the government, but how large its margin of victory is.

    James H. Fowler
    Journal of Politics 68 (1): 89-103 (February 2006)
      (Web appendix)

  27. Second Order Free Riding Problem Solved? Panchanathan and Boyd describe a model of indirect reciprocity in which mutual aid among cooperators can promote large-scale human cooperation without succumbing to a second-order free-riding problem (whereby individuals receive but do not give aid). However, the model does not include second-order free riders as one of the possible behavioural types. Here I present a simplified version of their model to demonstrate how cooperation unravels if second-round defectors enter the population, and this shows that the free-riding problem remains unsolved.
    James H. Fowler
    Nature 437: doi:10.1038/nature04201 (22 September 2005)

    Altruistic Punishment and the Origin of Cooperation

    How did human cooperation evolve? Recent evidence shows that many people are willing to engage in altruistic punishment, voluntarily paying a cost to punish noncooperators. Although this behavior helps to explain how cooperation can persist, it creates an important puzzle. If altruistic punishment provides benefits to nonpunishers and is costly to punishers, then how could it evolve? Drawing on recent insights from voluntary public goods games, I present a simple evolutionary model in which altruistic punishers can enter and will always come to dominate a population of contributors, defectors, and nonparticipants. The model suggests that the cycle of strategies in voluntary public goods games does not persist in the presence of punishment strategies. It also suggests that punishment can only enforce payoff-improving strategies, contrary to a widely cited "folk theorem" result that suggests that punishment can allow the evolution of any strategy.

  28. Altruistic Punishment and the Origin of Cooperation How did human cooperation evolve? Recent evidence shows that many people are willing to engage in altruistic punishment, voluntarily paying a cost to punish noncooperators. Although this behavior helps to explain how cooperation can persist, it creates an important puzzle. If altruistic punishment provides benefits to nonpunishers and is costly to punishers, then how could it evolve? Drawing on recent insights from voluntary public goods games, I present a simple evolutionary model in which altruistic punishers can enter and will always come to dominate a population of contributors, defectors, and nonparticipants. The model suggests that the cycle of strategies in voluntary public goods games does not persist in the presence of punishment strategies. It also suggests that punishment can only enforce payoff-improving strategies, contrary to a widely cited "folk theorem" result that suggests that punishment can allow the evolution of any strategy.
    James H. Fowler
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102 (19): 7047-7049 (10 May 2005)
      (Featured in U.S. News and World Report)
      (For a recent extension of this model to finite populations, see this Science article.)

  29. Dynamic Responsiveness in the US Senate I develop a theory of dynamic responsiveness that suggests that parties that win elections choose candidates who are more extreme and parties that lose elections choose candidates who are more moderate. Moreover, the size of past victories matters. Close elections yield little change, but landslides yield larger changes in the candidates offered by both parties. I test this theory by analyzing the relationship between Republican vote share in U.S. Senate elections and the ideology of candidates offered in the subsequent election. The results show that Republican (Democratic) victories in past elections yield candidates who are more (less) conservative in subsequent elections, and the effect is proportional to the margin of victory. This suggests that parties or candidates pay attention to past election returns. One major implication is that parties may remain polarized in spite of their responsiveness to the median voter.
    James H. Fowler
    American Journal of Political Science 49 (2): 299-312 (April 2005)

  30. Egalitarian Motive and Altruistic Punishment Altruistic punishment is a behaviour in which individuals punish others at a cost to themselves in order to provide a public good. Fehr and Gachter present experimental evidence suggesting that negative emotions toward non-cooperators motivate punishment which, in turn, facilitates high levels of cooperation in humans. Using Fehr and Gachter's original data, we provide an alternative analysis of the experiment that suggests egalitarian motives are more important than motives to punish non-cooperative behaviour--a finding consistent with evidence that humans may have an evolutionary incentive to punish the highest earners in order to promote equality, not cooperation.
    James H. Fowler, Tim Johnson, Oleg Smirnov
    Nature 433: doi:10.1038/nature03256 (06 January 2005)

  31. Dynamic Parties and Social Turnout: An Agent-Based Model The authors develop an agent-based model of dynamic parties with social turnout built upon developments in different fields within social science. This model yields significant turnout, divergent platforms, and numerous results consistent with the rational calculus of voting model and the empirical literature on social turnout. In a simplified version of the model, the authors show how a local imitation structure inherently yields dynamics that encourage positive turnout. The model also generates new hypotheses about the importance of social networks and citizen-party interactions.
    James H. Fowler, Oleg Smirnov
    American Journal of Sociology 110 (4): 1070-1094 (January 2005)

    Egalitarian Motive and Altruistic Punishment

    Altruistic punishment is a behaviour in which individuals punish others at a cost to themselves in order to provide a public good. Fehr and Gachter present experimental evidence suggesting that negative emotions toward non-cooperators motivate punishment which, in turn, facilitates high levels of cooperation in humans. Using Fehr and Gachter's original data, we provide an alternative analysis of the experiment that suggests egalitarian motives are more important than motives to punish non-cooperative behaviour--a finding consistent with evidence that humans may have an evolutionary incentive to punish the highest earners in order to promote equality, not cooperation.

  32. Turnout in a Small World This paper investigates between-voter interactions in a social network model of turnout. It shows that if 1) there is a small probability that voters imitate the behavior of one of their acquaintances, and 2) individuals are closely connected to others in a population (the "small-world" effect), then a single voting decision may affect dozens of other voters in a "turnout cascade." If people tend to be ideologically similar to other people they are connected to, then these turnout cascades will produce net favorable results for their favorite candidate. By changing more than one vote with one's own turnout decision, the turnout incentive is thus substantially larger than previously thought. We analyze conditions that are favorable to turnout cascades and show that the effect is consistent with real social network data from Huckfeldt and Sprague's South Bend and Indianapolis-St. Louis election surveys. We also suggest that turnout cascades may help explain over-reporting of turnout and the ubiquitous belief in a duty to vote.
    James H. Fowler
    in Alan Zuckerman, ed., Social Logic of Politics, Temple University Press, 269-287 (2005)

  33. The United States and South Korean Democratization In 1987 South Korea initiated a successful transition to democracy, while previous attempts in 1979 and 1980 failed. This paper distinguishes two cycles of liberalization in South Korea and then develops a conceptual understanding that is used to test two common schools of thought. One school asserts that the United States had little impact on democratization in Korea and that domestic factors explain the delayed transition. The other school implies that the U.S. could have improved prospects for democratization by not approving Chun Doo Hwan's request to use Combined Forces Command troops to repress demonstrations in 1980. Finding both sets of explanations unsatisfactory, this paper draws on recently declassified documents and interviews with State Department officials to advance the hypothesis that it was U.S. public pressure which played a critical role in determining the timing of South Korea's transition to democracy. Finally, the use of public pressure is found to have been greatly affected by unrelated foreign policy crises in Iran and the Philippines, illuminating the process whereby conflicts in other countries that had no direct bearing on South Korea ultimately affected the outcome of its own domestic political process.
    James H. Fowler
    Political Science Quarterly 114 (2): 265-288 (Summer 1999)
      (Also appears in Demetrios Caraley, ed. The New American Interventionism, New York: Columbia University Press (2000))

WORKING PAPERS

  1. Friendships Moderate an Association Between the DRD4 Gene and Political Ideology Studies of identical and fraternal twins suggest that political ideology has a heritable component (Alford, Funk, and Hibbing 2005; Hatemi et al. 2007), but no specific gene associated with political ideology has so far been identified. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigate the moderating influence of friendships on the contribution of the 7R allele of the DRD4 gene to liberal political ideology. The number of self-nominated friendships in adolescence moderates the influence of the gene on political ideology; the more friends nominated, the stronger the liberal ideological identification of the respondent in early adulthood. This is the first study to elaborate a specific gene-environment interaction that contributes to ideological self-identification.
    Jaime Settle, Christopher T. Dawes, Nicholas A. Christakis, James H. Fowler

  2. A Model of Genetic Variation in Human Social Networks Social networks influence the evolution of cooperation and they exhibit strikingly systematic patterns across a wide range of human contexts. Both of these facts suggest that variation in the topological attributes of human social networks might have a genetic basis. While genetic variation accounts for a significant portion of the variation in many complex social behaviors, the heritability of egocentric social network attributes is unknown. Here we show that three of these attributes (in-degree, transitivity, and centrality) are heritable. We then develop a 'mirror network' method to test extant network models and show that none accounts for observed genetic variation in human social networks. We propose an alternative 'attract and introduce' model that generates significant heritability as well as other important network features, and we show that this model with two simple forms of heterogeneity is well suited to the modeling of real social networks in humans. These results suggest that natural selection may have played a role in the evolution of social networks. They also suggest that modeling intrinsic variation in network attributes may be important for understanding the way genes affect human behaviors and the way these behaviors spread from person to person.
    James H. Fowler, Christopher T. Dawes, Nicholas A. Christakis

  3. Partisanship, Voting, and the Dopamine D2 Receptor Gene Previous studies have found that both political orientations (Alford, Funk and Hibbing 2005) and voting behavior (Fowler, Baker and Dawes 2007, Fowler and Dawes 2007) are significantly heritable. In this article we study genetic variation in another important political behavior: partisan attachment. Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we show that individuals with the A1 allele of the D2 dopamine receptor gene are significantly less likely to identify as a partisan than those with the A2 allele. Further, we find that this gene's association with partisanship also mediates an indirect association between the A1 allele and voter abstention. These results are the first to identify a specific gene that may be responsible for the tendency to join political groups, and they may help to explain correlation in parent and child partisanship and the persistence of partisan behavior over time.
    Christopher T. Dawes, James H. Fowler
      (Front page coverage in the San Diego Union Tribune)
      (See the New York Times editorial)

  4. The Dynamic Spread of Happiness in a Large Social Network The study of happiness is receiving increasing attention in economics, psychology, neuroscience, and evolutionary biology, and a broad range of stimuli to human happiness and unhappiness have been explored, including lottery wins, income, job loss, socioeconomic inequality, divorce, commuting time, illness, bereavement, and genes. However, these studies have not addressed a key stimulus to human happiness: the happiness of others. Past work has shown that people imitate facial expressions , and that one person’s mood might fleetingly determine the mood of others. However, whether happiness spreads broadly and more permanently across social networks is unknown. Here, we measure the happiness of 5,019 individuals over 18 years in the Framingham Heart Study Social Network (FHS-Net) to examine how network characteristics affect a person’s happiness and how happiness spreads between friends, spouses, siblings, and neighbors. Clusters of happy and unhappy people are visible in the network, and the effect of one person’s happiness appears to extend up to three degrees of separation (to one’s friends’ friends’ friends). Moreover, network characteristics predict which individuals will be happy in the future, particularly those who are surrounded by many happy people and those who are highly central in their local networks. We also find that the spread of happiness decays with both physical distance and time. Finally, longitudinal statistical models suggest that happiness clusters result from the spread of happiness and not just a tendency for people to associate with those who exhibit similar emotional states.
    James H. Fowler, Nicholas A. Christakis

  5. The Heritability of Partisan Attachment One of the strongest regularities in the empirical political science literature is the well-known correlation in parent and child partisan behavior. Until recently this phenomenon was thought to result solely from parental socialization, but new evidence on genetic sources of behavior suggests it might also be due to heritability. In this article we hypothesize that genes contribute to variation in a general tendency toward strength of partisanship. Using data collected at the Twins Days Festival in Twinsburg, Ohio in 2006 and 2007, we compare the similarity of partisan strength in identical twins (who share all of their genes) to the similarity of partisan strength in non-identical twins (who share only half). The results show that heritability accounts for almost half of the variance in strength of partisan attachment, and they suggest that we should pay closer attention to the role of biology in the expression of important political behaviors.
    Jaime Settle, Christopher T. Dawes, James H. Fowler
      (Front page coverage in the San Diego Union Tribune)

  6. The Behavioral Logic of Collective Action: Partisans Cooperate and Punish More Than Non-Partisans Why do individuals engage in personally costly, partisan activities that benefit others? If individuals act according to rational self-interest, then partisan activity occurs only when the benefits of that activity exceed its costs. However, laboratory experiments suggest that many people are willing to contribute to public goods and to punish those who do not contribute--even when these activities are personally costly and when members of the experimental group are completely anonymous. We hypothesize that these individuals, called strong reciprocators, underlie the capacity of political parties to organize competition for scarce resources and the production of public goods. To test this hypothesis, we conducted an experiment that includes a random income game with costly income alteration and a standard public goods game with costly punishment. These games allow us to gauge participants' willingness to contribute to public goods and to engage in the costly punishment of free-riders. The results show that partisans are more likely than nonpartisans to contribute to public goods and to engage in costly punishment. Thus, inherent tastes for cooperation and sanctioning help resolve the paradox of party participation.
    Oleg Smirnov, Christopher T. Dawes, James H. Fowler, Tim Johnson, Richard McElreath

  7. The Role of Egalitarian Motives in Altruistic Punishment We conduct experiments in which subjects participate in both a game that measures preferences for income equality and a public goods game involving costly punishment. The results indicate that individuals who care about equality are those who are most willing to punish free-riders in public goods games.
    Tim Johnson, Christopher T. Dawes, James H. Fowler, Richard McElreath, Oleg Smirnov

  8. Social Preferences and Political Participation Models of political participation have begun to incorporate actors who possess "social preferences". However, these models have failed to take into account the potentially incongruent political goals of different social preference types. These goals are likely to play an important role in shaping political behavior. To examine the effect of distinct social preferences on political activity we conducted an experiment in which participants played five rounds of a modified dictator game (Andreoni and Miller 2002). We used the decisions in these games to determine their preference type and mapped these types to reported political activity. Our results show that sub jects who were most interested in increasing total welfare in the dictator game were more likely to participate in politics than subjects with selfish preferences, whereas sub jects most interested in reducing the difference between their own well-being and the well-being of others were no more likely to participate.
    Christopher T. Dawes, James H. Fowler

  9. When It's Not All About Me: Altruism, Participation, and Political Context Altruism refers to a willingness to pay a personal cost to make others better off. Past research has established a link between altruism and political participation, primarily among college students. We show that dictator game behavior predicts support for humanitarian norms and donations to Hurricane Katrina victims, suggesting that dictator game allocations are valid measures of altruism. Moreover, we show that this measure of altruism predicts participation in politics, suggesting that past results with students can be generalized to a broader population. Finally, consistent with the argument that altruists only participate when they think doing so will make everyone better off, we show that there is no relationship between altruism and voter turnout in an election where the outcome is distributive and where it is not clear that either political outcome will produce a net societal gain.
    Cindy D. Kam, Skyler J. Cranmer, James H. Fowler

  10. Legislative Success in a Small World: Social Network Analysis and the Dynamics of Congressional Legislation We examine the social network structure of Congress from 1973-2004. We treat two Members of Congresas directly linked if they have cosponsored a bill together. We then construct explicit networks for each year using data from all forms of legislation, including resolutions, public and private bills, and amendments. We show that Congress exemplifies the characteristics of a "small world" network and that the varying small world properties during this time period are strongly related to the number of important bills passed.
    Wendy K. Tam Cho, James H. Fowler

  11. Co-Sponsorship Networks of Minority-Supported Legislation in the House Works that measure the substantive representation of minority interests based solely on roll call data have been criticized for ignoring more behind-the-scenes activities that legislators might perform on behalf of their constituents. We thus focus in this paper on cosponsorship as a proxy for the degree to which members maneuver to create coalitions that will advance the substantive policy goals of the minority community. We find, consistent with previous work, that minority legislators tend to provide more of these types of activities than do other types of legislators, but maximizing cosponsorship benefits for bills that pass Congress involves creating districts of about 45% black voting age population.
    David Epstein, James H. Fowler, Sharyn O'Halloran

  12. Parties and Agenda-Setting in the Senate, 1973-1998 We analyze the influence of party and preferences on Senate agenda-setting. We find a significant majority party advantage in getting bills reported from committee, but otherwise little variation within parties based on preferences. In addition, our results suggest that Senate committees are more likely to report bills written by committee leaders and senior members, or bills with cosponsors. This suggests that Senate agenda-setters are sensitive to cues that bills are high-quality and relatively easy to pass.
    Gregory Koger, James H. Fowler
      (Online Appendix)

SOFTWARE AND DATA

All of my available data is now catalogued in the Dataverse. Click here for easy online access to all my data and software.

TEACHING

University of California, San Diego

EITM Summer Institute, UCLA

University of California, Davis

Harvard University

  • Math (P)refresher for Political Scientists (Lecturer)
  • Strategy of International Politics (Head TF)
  • Thinking about Politics: A Rational Choice Approach (TF)
  • Sophomore Tutorial: Constitutional Democracy in America (TF)
  • The Modern World Economy, 1873-2000 (TF)
  • Growth and Development in Historical Perspective (TF)

Yale University

  • Strategy, Technology, and War (TF)
  • The United Nations and World Order (TF)

United States Peace Corps, Latacunga, Ecuador

  • Health Promotion Educator (1992-1994). Educated 25 community health promoters. Taught health lessons to adults and children in 40+ indigenous communities. Designed and budgeted gravity flow water systems for 10,000 people in 30+ communities. Supervised construction of 900+ latrines for 5,000 people in 9 rural communities. Learned fluent Spanish and rudimentary Quichua.
  • English conversation (1993-1994). Universidad Técnica de Ambato and Instituto Técnico Superior del Ejército.

Last Updated 1 July 2008
Copyright © 1998-2008 James Fowler and Harla Yesner, All Rights Reserved.